Multiplicative Langevin Process for Volatilities Produces Observed Q-Variance Regularities

William H. Press and Alex Dannenberg

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Abstract: Q-variance (so-called) posits a statistical relationship $\mathbf{E}(\sigma^2 | z) = \sigma_0^2 + \tfrac{1}{2}z^2$ between an asset's volatility $\sigma^2$, as observed in a time interval $T$, and its (suitably scaled) return $z$ in the same interval. We here show that this relationship is {\em exactly equivalent} to to positing an Inverse Gamma probability distribution for $\sigma^2$ itself. We then show that such a distribution is exactly generated by a multiplicative Langevin process with an arbitrary, settable coherence time $\tau_c$, so that very nearly the same Q-variance relationship will hold for all $T \ll \tau_c$.

Date: 2026-05
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