Tracking the Economy through Firm Creation:Evidence from Real-Time Administrative Data

Anthony Savagar and Yannis Galanakis

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We introduce a novel real-time dataset, Companies House Real-Time (CHRT), that captures daily firm creation and dissolution activity for the full population of UK-registered companies. CHRT provides a timely measure of business formation, becoming available months before official business demography statistics. We show that incorporation activity leads taxable business births and contains forward-looking information about employment and output growth. Consistent with this, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) indicates that positive shocks to firm entry generate persistent increases in employment and output.

Date: 2026-05
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