Hour-Aware Adaptive Risk Management for Autonomous Memecoin Trading on Solana DEXs: Evidence, Theory, and Design Lessons from a 15-Day Deployment

Arati Kamat

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Abstract: We report a 15-day paper-traded deployment of an autonomous memecoin trading system on Solana decentralised exchanges (DEXs) as a controlled measurement of three microstructure questions on which classical equity theory offers well-defined predictions but on which the AMM-based Solana venue lacks published empirical measurement: time-of-day patterns on a 24/7 permissionless venue; whether decision-time filter stacks are net-positive against the counterfactual returns of the tokens they reject; and whether small-sample cumulative-return statistics on a heavy-tailed venue are structurally robust or fragile. The 190-trade sample (March 29 to April 12, 2026) shows a 40.5 percent win rate, mean per-trade return +0.62 percent, cumulative +117.7 percent (net SOL +0.03873), population skewness -1.21, excess kurtosis 6.61. Stratifying on the derived UTC entry hour (date minus heldMin), a Mann-Whitney U test of three exploratorily identified poorest-performing hours (2, 13, 23; combined n=17, mean -11.60 percent) against all other hours (n=173, mean +1.82 percent) yields U = 1,345, p = 0.5634 (two-sided asymptotic, continuity-corrected), rank-biserial r = 0.085; directional and non-confirmatory. A parallel counterfactual rejection-tracking system collected 4,874 forward-sample observations across 184 rejection events; 17.9 percent of events reached a 50 percent drawdown from reference within 24 hours. Removing the top three trades (1.6 percent of sample) flips cumulative return unprofitable. Alongside the trade log and rejection-sample corpus we deposit audit.py, an assertion-based reproduction script that exits zero iff every headline number reproduces from the deposited CSVs. Companion dataset: Zenodo concept DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20043301. The paper's principal contribution is measurement infrastructure and three transferable design lessons.

Date: 2026-06, Revised 2026-07
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