CFOs Meet LLMs

John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey and Manish Jha

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Business sentiment is a closely watched economic signal, but measuring it is slow and costly: surveys reach only a few hundred firms, arrive periodically, and take time to compile. We show that large language models hold the potential to address these shortcomings. We prompt an LLM to role-play as the CFO of a specific company at a specific date and focus on the economic-optimism question on the Duke-Federal Reserve CFO Survey over 2002-2025. We find that the LLM reproduces individual human responses: the predicted optimism score significantly forecasts the CFO's actual answer, surviving firm and year-quarter fixed effects and a control for the most recent prior response. Predictive accuracy increases with the amount of information supplied, as both respondent history and firm characteristics improve fit, and the relationship persists under quarterly aggregation. With appropriate conditioning, LLMs may be able to serve as credible digital twins of executives, offering scalable, high-frequency expectations data for financial research and policy.

Date: 2026-06
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