CFOs Meet LLMs

John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey and Manish Jha

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Business sentiment is a closely watched economic signal, but measuring it is slow and costly: surveys typically reach only a few hundred firms, arrive periodically, and take time to compile. We show that large language models hold the potential to address these shortcomings. We prompt an LLM to role-play as the CFO of a specific company on a specific date, for every public-company CFO who responded to the Duke--Federal Reserve CFO Survey between 2002 and 2025, and answer a question about economy-wide optimism. The LLM-generated optimism score predicts the individual CFO's actual answer, even in specifications that include firm and year-quarter fixed effects as well as a control variable measuring the human CFO's lagged response. Accuracy increases with the information provided to the LLM, and the relation persists under quarterly aggregation. We find the same patterns hold for two other questions measuring CFO expectations: the respondent's optimism about their own firm and their expectation of own-firm revenues. With appropriate conditioning, LLMs may in the future be able to serve as digital twins of executives, offering scalable, high-frequency expectations data for financial research and policy.

Date: 2026-06, Revised 2026-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ain, nep-big, nep-cmp and nep-fmk
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