The Mathematics of Modeling the Future

Miquel Noguer i Alonso

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Modeling the future requires specifying conditional laws relative to an evolving information flow and describing their movement across time. This paper provides a unified mathematical synthesis of this problem along a single spine. Filtrations encode known data; conditional expectation and regular conditional probabilities yield point and distributional forecasts; Markov kernels and semigroups propagate observables and laws; and infinitesimal generators encode local dynamics, producing Kolmogorov equations and stochastic differential equations. Along this spine, martingales isolate surprise, filtering handles partial observation, finance prices futures, stochastic control optimizes choices, and ergodic theory describes the far future. The contribution is architectural. We explicitly connect derivations that turn classical objects into a unified forecasting calculus: the tower property becomes the semigroup law; Ito's formula yields the backward equation after conditioning; integration by parts provides the forward operator; and generator perturbations become model-risk distortions. Forecasting is shown not as mere data extrapolation, but the construction of dynamically coherent conditional distributions constrained by information, geometry, and admissible models. These concepts are illustrated via Gaussian Ornstein--Uhlenbeck and non-Gaussian Cox--Ingersoll--Ross processes, demonstrating how abstract machinery produces explicit transition laws, spectral decompositions, term-structure formulae, and asymptotics in diverse geometries. We recast density evolution as a Wasserstein gradient flow, place forecasting within Hilbert, Fisher--Rao, and Wasserstein geometries, provide a discrete-time empirical dictionary, and address model-risk. The result is a compact mathematical map from information to prediction, local dynamics to global laws, and idealized models to empirical forecasting.

Date: 2026-06
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