CLQT: A Closed-Loop, Cost-Aware, Strategy-Consistent Benchmark for Diagnostic Evaluation of LLM Portfolio-Management Agents

Bo Qu and Mingguang Chen

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: LLM agents are increasingly cast as autonomous portfolio managers, and benchmarks have moved from financial question-answering to sequential trading. Yet most still rank agents by returns over a fixed window -- a weak proxy, since a period's return is dominated by the market path and apparent alpha can dissolve once look-ahead leakage is controlled. Such a ranking certifies neither sound reasoning, nor a consistent strategy, nor a durable edge. We introduce CLQT, which reframes closed-loop trading evaluation as diagnosis rather than ranking: an instrument that localizes where and why an agent's process succeeds or fails. CLQT is a fully closed-loop, cost-aware, strategy-consistent, temporally-gated environment whose agents run a five-stage cycle: gather, synthesize, allocate, execute, reflect. Each round emits a complete DecisionRound sealed into a recompute-verifiable hash chain, so every metric is reconstructable from the trail. Six pillars form the substrate: a hard TimeGate, institutional transaction- and financing-cost modeling, strategy-consistency scoring, three-tier memory, a Model-Context-Protocol tool layer, and mandate-aware synthesis. The same agent runs as a constrained committee of specialized roles or a single full-autonomy orchestrator, making process scaffolding an experimental variable. From the audit trail we compute a five-axis capability scorecard (APM-CS: Coherence, Acuity, Composure, Discipline, Reliability), with Coherence judged partly by a held-out, out-of-cohort LLM to curb self-preference bias. We validate it on a contamination-controlled multi-model backtest with an ablation grid and a live broker track on unseen, post-cutoff data, against a repeated-run noise floor. CLQT separates outcome from capability, yielding not a model ranking but a durable, extensible map of agent competencies and limitations.

Date: 2026-06
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