Night and Day: Diurnal Warming and Structural Transformation in India

Vedarshi Shastry

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Abstract: This paper finds diverging partial effects of diurnal warming (higher nighttime and daytime temperatures) on agricultural wage-labour shares from decadal Indian Censuses (1981-2011). Though both margins contract grain output and cultivated area, only higher maxima raise harvest prices locally, consistent with a model where warmer nights shock land but warmer days shock land and labour productivity. Warming nights shift seasonal workers and self-cultivators into agricultural labour; warming days push labour to the seasonal margin. Long differences show the labour divergence is rural. In towns, both margins depress non-agricultural worker shares.

Date: 2026-07
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