Night and Day: Diurnal Warming and Structural Change

Vedarshi Shastry

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This paper shows how the composition of local economic activity shifts decadally under diurnal warming (higher nighttime and daytime temperatures) within Indian districts (1981--2011). Warmer nights raise, warmer days lower agricultural wage-labour shares. Though warmer days and nights both contract grain production and area under cultivation, only warmer days raise local harvest prices. Long differences show the labour divergence is within the rural population. In towns, both margins depress non-agricultural worker shares. These results are consistent with a model where warmer days shock land and labour productivity, but warmer nights are land-biased shocks in agriculture.

Date: 2026-07, Revised 2026-08
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