Treatment Geometry and Causal Identification with Earth Observation Data

Jeffrey D. Michler, Anna Josephson, Elinor Benami, Patrick Behrer, Michael J. Cecil, Sydney Gourlay, Robert Heilmayr, Ella Kirchner, Gina Maskell and Kunwar Singh

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: A central task in conducting impact evaluations is determining who or what was exposed to a treatment, when, and to what degree. These questions can be especially complex in geospatial settings, where many reasonable definitions of exposure may exist. This chapter introduces treatment geometry as a core concept in geospatial impact evaluation (GIE): the spatial and temporal footprint of a treatment as represented in data. How this footprint is defined shapes identification strategies and the credibility of causal inference. Drawing on cases spanning the air pollution, wildfire, forest policy, infrastructure, pest, and food security literature, the chapter provides practical guidance on navigating key tradeoffs (including spatial resolution, temporal alignment, spillovers, and boundary uncertainty) that arise when translating real-world interventions into analyzable data. Rather than prescribing a single best approach, the chapter equips researchers with a framework for diagnosing which geometry decisions may matter most in their context, closing with synthesis questions to help readers navigate these decisions.

Date: 2026-07
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