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Efficient difference-in-differences estimation under partial interference with incremental propensity score policies

Junjie Li and Yukitoshi Matsushita

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Abstract: This paper develops efficient difference-in-differences (DID) estimation under partial interference with a cluster incremental propensity score (CIPS) policy. We define direct and spillover average treatment effects on the treated, establish their identification, and derive their efficient influence functions, from which we construct a cross-fitted estimator. Simulations confirm its finite-sample validity, and an application to China's New Rural Pension Scheme uncovers a significantly negative within-household spillover of pension participation on co-residents' labour income.

Date: 2026-07
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