Predicting Startup Exit from Textual Descriptors - A Computational Linguistics Framework

Alberto M. G. Saruggia and Sebastien Germano

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This study shows that textual descriptors alone can predict early-stage startup success, defined as Exit, without relying on contextual, financial, or human capital variables. Using venture capital-curated datasets covering 7,419 startups over 20 years, the research isolates text-based framing variables and engineers 850 features via startup narrative mapping. Data subsets and vector embeddings are evaluated for statistical significance, followed by supervised machine learning experiments across six models. Binary Exit prediction using Logistic Regression attains an F1 of 0.48 with 0.55 recall using all features (excluding embeddings), and an F1 of 0.26 with 0.59 recall using textual descriptors only (including embeddings). Feature analysis indicates that optimized densities of hyping markers such as adjectives, jargon, and buzzwords are associated with higher Exit probability, while excessive statement or name length is associated with lower probability. The study also introduces a quantifiable Hyping Score for potential application in venture screening. Findings indicate that startup framing can serve as standalone predictor of economic outcomes, in high-information-asymmetry investment environments.

Date: 2026-07, Revised 2026-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-cfn, nep-ent, nep-inv and nep-sbm
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