Decarbonising price formation: unit-level evidence on battery storage and the imbalance price in the GB Balancing Mechanism

Robert Dalton and Aidan O'Sullivan

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Abstract: Renewables now dominate Great Britain's generation mix but rarely occupy the marginal price-setting position, which raises the question of which flexible technologies translate a renewable-rich system into real-time price formation. This study reconstructs the price-ranked edge of the eligible bid or offer stack in the GB Balancing Mechanism across 50,684 half-hourly Settlement Periods from 2023 to 2025 and attributes it to individual Balancing Mechanism Units, separating long-system bid-active from short-system offer-active conditions and retaining co-marginal ties. Batteries rose from 0.8% to 36.2% of bid-active and from 3.2% to 26.9% of offer-active marginality, displacing combined-cycle gas on the bid side and pumped storage on the offer side. Capacity-normalised marginal capture rose on both sides, and unit-quarter fixed effects show that an additional 100 MW of Balancing Mechanism active capacity was associated with a 0.55 and 0.48 percentage-point increase in quarterly bid- and offer-side marginal share. By 2025, battery actions were around {\pounds}9 to 10/MWh more favourable than volume-matched non-battery alternatives drawn from the same ladder, yet batteries were under-represented by 12.9 percentage points in the highest-priced 5% of short-system periods. Individual batteries remain consistent with price-taking, while the fleet has become endogenous to routine balancing price formation.

Date: 2026-08
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