Uniform Inference and Certified Capacity at a Reflexive Stability Boundary

Alejandro Rodriguez Dominguez

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This paper develops uniform inference and certified capacity decisions for an estimated financial stability boundary. Conditional risk, temporary cross-impact, and effective risk-bearing capacity are jointly estimated from dependent observations. Conventional pointwise inference is reliable at a separated simple spectral root but can fail near semisimple or defective collisions. Projecting a valid joint confidence region for the underlying inputs avoids this local approximation and yields a three-way regime decision with abstention and a one-sided capacity bound. A verified two-dimensional implementation keeps numerical error from creating a resolved sign. Structural simulations recover the predicted tradeoff between coverage and resolution, while observed-risk stresses distinguish statistical abstention from an insufficient computational budget. The financial conclusions remain conditional on the identification of cross-impact, the normalization of capacity, and stability of the inputs over the action horizon.

Date: 2026-09
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