The Anatomy of Commodity Risk: Micro, Market, and Economy-Wide Sources

Nektarios Aslanidis, Aurelio Fernandez Bariviera, George Kapetanios, Vasilis Sarafidis and Alexia Ventouri

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We study the anatomy of commodity risk by distinguishing micro, market-level, and economy-wide sources. We develop a two-stage "divide-and-conquer" framework that allows sensitivities to these risk sources to vary across commodities while treating economy-wide risk as latent. The first stage uses defactored instrumental-variable estimation to recover commodity-specific sensitivities to micro and market conditions. The second combines principal components with high-dimensional variable selection to identify an observable representation of macro-financial risk. We then construct Risk Intensity Indices (RIIs), which combine estimated sensitivities with prevailing risk conditions to quantify the relative importance of each risk source on a common scale. Market risk is the largest component on average, accounting for about two fifths of total risk intensity and more than half for energy commodities. Risk intensity is also highly concentrated across individual commodities: the top 20% account for approximately half of micro and market risk intensity, whereas macro risk is more broadly dispersed. The composition of risk varies substantially across sectors and over time, with market risk becoming particularly prominent during episodes of commodity-market stress. Micro and market RIIs also contain information about future volatility and absolute returns. These findings provide investors, risk managers, and policymakers with a diagnostic of where commodity risk is concentrated, which risk layers are most important, and how their importance changes over time. More broadly, our divide-and-conquer framework provides a flexible approach to decomposing layered risk in settings where common risk is latent.

Date: 2026-09
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