Measuring Gift Card Program Incrementality via Causal Data Fusion

Justin Whitehouse, William Betz, Yan Zhang, Peter Coles, Ramesh Johari and Vasilis Syrgkanis

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Abstract: Businesses regularly offer gift card programs to drive customer spending and increase engagement. A central question is how much incremental revenue these programs generate, and which channels drive it most efficiently. Measuring the incremental revenue associated with a gift card program is a challenging problem in causal inference, requiring a firm to infer how much each customer would have spent if they never received a gift card. Observational data on past customer purchasing behavior reveal possession of a gift card only when a customer makes a purchase, thus leaving a customer's treatment status systematically censored. In this paper, we develop a novel data fusion approach to overcome this missing data challenge. We identify and estimate incrementality by combining a large observational dataset with a smaller experimental dataset from a different population. Our approach relies on a mild transferability condition, which posits that the conditional relative treatment effect of gift card receipt on the decision to purchase is invariant across the two populations. We develop a flexible, machine learning-based estimator for the incremental revenue and establish its asymptotic normality. We apply our estimator across both first- and third-party channels through which Airbnb distributes gift cards, finding heterogeneity in incrementality across segments of the population. In particular, we find not only that third-party channels are more incremental than first-party ones, but also that "self-gifters" (i.e., customers likely to have purchased their own gift cards) are more incremental than the broader population.

Date: 2026-10
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