Deep Learning vs. Statistical Models for Multi-Horizon Price Forecasting of Second-Hand Electronics: A Systematic Benchmark

Mateusz Buczy\'nski, Micha{\l} Wo\'zniak, Konrad Kaczy\'nski, Anna Wr\'oblewska and Sebastian Kuk

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Forecasting resale prices of used electronics is critical for subscription-based platforms where pricing errors translate directly into risk. Unlike structured financial markets, second-hand electronics exhibit high volatility, sparse listing histories, and non-normal price dynamics - yet no systematic time-series benchmark exists for this domain. This paper presents the first multi-horizon benchmark of statistical and deep learning forecasting models for used electronics price prediction. We use a large-scale dataset of daily price listings from Polish online marketplaces (January 2022 to March 2025, 100+ smartphone and laptop models) and evaluate eleven models across six horizons from 1 to 365 days, covering classical methods (ARIMA, ETS, Theta), recurrent and convolutional networks (LSTM, TCN), and modern deep architectures (N-BEATS, N-HiTS, TFT, PatchTST, Informer). Three complementary evaluation protocols assess trajectory fitness, one-shot endpoint accuracy, and cross-horizon transfer. N-BEATS achieves the lowest MAPE beyond 30 days, reaching 8.51% at 365 days versus 14.94% for the best statistical baseline - a 43% reduction. At short horizons (1-7 days), all models converge near 0.72% MAPE and the naive baseline remains competitive. A single N-BEATS model trained at 365 days generalizes to all shorter horizons, eliminating the need for horizon-specific models. N-BEATS and N-HiTS also demonstrate superior hyperparameter stability.

Date: 2026-10
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.10727 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2610.10727

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().