Intentionally Overidentifying Local Projections

Junjie Guo, Endong Wang and Ke-Li Xu

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Local projections (LPs) have become a standard tool for estimating dynamic effects in macroeconomics and are typically implemented using ordinary least squares (OLS) for a given lag order. We propose an alternative approach that exploits additional lags as excluded instrumental variables (IVs). Under a finite-order model with martingale-difference shocks, the resulting (optimally weighted) IV estimator is never asymptotically less efficient than OLS and, as we show, can deliver substantial efficiency gains when data are persistent. For the unit-root AR(1) data with i.i.d. errors, our baseline IV estimator (with one overidentifying restriction) has asymptotic variance $2-h^{-1}$, compared with $h$, the asymptotic variance of the OLS lag-augmented estimator in Montiel Olea and Plagborg-M{\o}ller (2021), for an integer propagation horizon $h$. We then develop IV-based LP inference that is robust to unknown persistence and moderate local model misspecification, whereas the recursive VAR-based inference is generally not robust to the latter. We also characterize the trade-off between the degree of misspecification and the number of additional lag controls. Through simulations and an empirical application, we demonstrate that the proposed method can yield meaningfully shorter confidence intervals for impulse responses than OLS in finite samples.

Date: 2026-10
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