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Robust Capital Budgeting

Yunzhi Hu, Fei Li, Hanqing Ye and Dihan Zou

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Abstract: We study capital budgeting when a manager privately knows project productivity and her empire-building benefits, while headquarters lacks credible priors. Headquarters minimizes maximum regret relative to informed investment. Without compensation, the optimal policy is a spending cap balancing empire-building overinvestment against profitable investment forgone. Compensation helps when empire-building incentives are weak. The optimal payment incentivizes restraint, declines with investment, and reaches zero at the spending cap, supporting greater managerial discretion. When empire-building incentives are strong, compensation cannot distinguish productive investment from biased expansion; therefore, a spending cap alone is optimal.

Date: 2026-10
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