Capital growth since the 19th century

Gordon Getty and Nikita Tkachenko

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Abstract: We argued in an earlier paper (Getty and Tkachenko 2025b), from data reported for net saving and market-value capital by 94 nations over the period 1980-2021, that net saving has had little or no effect on capital growth at the global scale. Here we extend the study backward to the earliest year, in each country, for which those data have been reported or reconstructed. We find a still smaller margin of possibility (1.6% versus 6.4%) of contribution of net saving to capital growth at the collective scale. We also propose and defend an alternative explanation of capital growth, and suggest a larger role for the cash flow concept in economic analysis.

Date: 2026-10
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