Weak Identification in Bunching Designs: Rare Events and Counterfactual Uncertainty

Kun Huang

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We study shrinking tax kinks when the counterfactual density is locally H\"older continuous and may be accompanied by a known background atom at the threshold. Small policy incentives create two distinct obstacles: few behavioral bunchers and an unobserved relocation interval. For the complete observed distribution, we establish matching minimax bounds for elasticity estimation and honest confidence-set diameter. With kink size $d$, background mass $\gamma$, and smoothness $0

Date: 2026-10
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