Siting and Curtailment Depth Limit the Grid Headroom Available to New Large Loads

Nils Johnson, Geoff Blanford and John E. T. Bistline

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Abstract: Data center demand is increasing faster than generation can be built, encouraging proposals to interconnect large loads on condition that they reduce consumption during high-stress periods. Estimates of how much load can be added via flexibility rest on simplified accounting and report only annual curtailed electricity. Here we use a national energy systems model that co-optimizes hourly generation and load curtailment across 16 U.S. regions to characterize the flexibility and power system impacts of enabling headroom. While 50 GW can be served while curtailing less than 0.1% of its annual energy, small annual curtailment conceals potentially severe operating requirements. Most regions require curtailment deeper than 90% in at least one hour, so the load must disconnect or have sufficient on-site resources to provide full back up. Furthermore, announced data center locations are not aligned with modeled headroom and relying on existing generation fleets raises CO2 emissions and wholesale electricity prices.

Date: 2026-10
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