Multi-dimensional Rational Bubbles and fat tails: application of stochastic regression equations to financial speculation

Yannick Malevergne and D. Sornette
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D. Sornette: Univ. Nice/CNRS and UCLA

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Abstract: We extend the model of rational bubbles of Blanchard and of Blanchard and Watson to arbitrary dimensions d: a number d of market time series are made linearly interdependent via d times d stochastic coupling coefficients. We first show that the no-arbitrage condition imposes that the non-diagonal impacts of any asset i on any other asset j different from i has to vanish on average, i.e., must exhibit random alternative regimes of reinforcement and contrarian feedbacks. In contrast, the diagonal terms must be positive and equal on average to the inverse of the discount factor. Applying the results of renewal theory for products of random matrices to stochastic recurrence equations (SRE), we extend the theorem of Lux and Sornette (cond-mat/9910141) and demonstrate that the tails of the unconditional distributions associated with such d-dimensional bubble processes follow power laws (i.e., exhibit hyperbolic decline), with the same asymptotic tail exponent mu

Date: 2001-01
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Published in Quantitative Finance 1, 533541 (2001)

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