The duration of recessions follows an exponential not a power law

Ian Wright

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Ormerod and Mounfield analysed GDP data of 17 leading capitalist economies from 1870 to 1994 and concluded that the frequency of the duration of recessions is consistent with a power-law. But in fact the data is consistent with an exponential (Boltzmann-Gibbs) law.

Date: 2003-11, Revised 2011-03
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Published in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 345, 3-4, pp. 608-610, 2005

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Journal Article: The duration of recessions follows an exponential not a power law (2005)
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