Extreme times for volatility processes

Jaume Masoliver and Josep Perelló ()

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We present a detailed study on the mean first-passage time of volatility processes. We analyze the theoretical expressions based on the most common stochastic volatility models along with empirical results extracted from daily data of major financial indices. We find in all these data sets a very similar behavior that is far from being that of a simple Wiener process. It seems necessary to include a framework like the one provided by stochastic volatility models with a reverting force driving volatility toward its normal level to take into account memory and clustering effects in volatility dynamics. We also detect in data a very different behavior in the mean first-passage time depending whether the level is higher or lower than the normal level of volatility. For this reason, we discuss asymptotic approximations and confront them to empirical results with a good agreement, specially with the ExpOU model.

Date: 2006-09, Revised 2007-05
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Published in Physical Review E 75 (2007) 046110

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:physics/0609136

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