Floods, Terrorist Attacks and the COVID-19 Pandemic: How the (De)Centralization of Power Affects the Rally around the Flag

Ignacio Lago and Andre Blais
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Ignacio Lago: International Center for Public Policy
Andre Blais: International Center for Public Policy

International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU from International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University

Abstract: This article examines whether rally effects when an unexpected calamity occurs are affected by the degree of (de)centralization of power. We argue that when the national government is exclusively in charge of the policy affected by the calamity, the rally should be comparatively greater than when the responsibility is shared between several levels of government. The argument is tested using observational data from national legislative and presidential elections after 423 major floods, 226 terrorist attacks and 61 pandemic elections. We find that it is only in centralized countries that incumbent governments perform better under a more severe pandemic.

Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2023-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2303

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