Working Papers

From Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic
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2602: Azerbaijanâ€™s Natural Rate of Interest: Where Are We Now?: Khazan Bakhshaliyev, Farid Muradzada and Vugar Ahmadov
2601: Construction and Forecasting of the Imported Food Price Index in Azerbaijan: Tamkin Nuriyev, Aygun Garayeva and Gulzar Tahirova
2503: Oil Price Projection Model: Farid Muradzada and Khazan Bakhshaliyev
2502: Overnight Interbank Rate Volatility Across Liquidity States: Key Drivers and Policy Implications: Elmir Mukhtarov, Ali Hajili, Aygun Garayeva and Vugar Ahmadov
2501: Estimating Potential Non-Oil GDP in Azerbaijan: Avaz Yusibov, Tural Yusifzada and Vugar Ahmadov
2404: Development of Short-term Forecasting Models for Non-oil GDP: Nazrin Ramazanova and Ogtay Gahramanov
2403: Forecasting of Global Food Prices Adjusted for Import Weights: Farida Valiyeva
2402: Decomposition of inflation in Azerbaijan into supply and demand components based on supermarket data: Khazan Bakhshaliyev and Vugar Ahmadov
2401: Quarterly Projection Model of Azerbaijan (AzIM 1.0): Tural Yusifzada, Nazrin Ramazanova, Ramiz Rahmanov and Vugar Ahmadov
2304: Short-term inflation forecasting models with Bayesian VAR: Evidence from Azerbaijan: Avaz Yusibov
2303: The relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth: the case of Azerbaijan: Zubeyda Imanova
2302: Estimating Natural Rate of Interest. The Case for Azerbaijan: Nazrin Ramazanova
2301: The impact of real effective exchange rate on non-oil exports in Azerbaijan: Farida Valiyeva
2202: Response of Inflation to the Climate Stress: Evidence from Azerbaijan: Tural Yusifzada
2201: Using National Payment System Data to Nowcast Economic Activity in Azerbaijan: Ilkin Huseynov, Nazrin Ramazanova and Hikmat Valirzayev
2102: Disentangling the effect of supply and demand factors on bank lending. Evidence from Bank Lending Survey in Azerbaijan: Ilkin Huseynov, Zubeyda Imanova and Hikmat Valirzayev
2101: Nowcasting Household Consumption in Azerbaijan: Nazrin Ramazanova and Ramiz Rahmanov
2002: Estimation and forecast of the current account balance in Azerbaijan: Aygun Garayeva, Nijat Guliyev, Zubeyda Imanova and Farida Valiyeva
2001: Forecasting Models for Components of the Consumer Price Index in Azerbaijan: Vugar Rahimov
1903: Modeling Azerbaijanâ€™s Inflation and Output Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Model: Vugar Rahimov, Nijat Guliyev and Vugar Ahmadov
1902: Estimation of Equilibrium Level of Real Effective Exchange Rate of Azerbaijan Using Behavioral Effective Exchange Rate Model: Vugar Rahimov and Heyran Aliyeva
1901: Do monetary and fiscal policies interact in oil-exporting countries? Evidence from Azerbaijan: Heyran Aliyeva and Ramiz Rahmanov
1802: The effects of external shocks on Azerbaijan economy: Nijat Guliyev
1801: Oil Prices and Inflation: Identifying Channels for Oil Exporters: Vugar Ahmadov, Salman Huseynov and Peter Pedroni
1705: Financial ratios and the prediction of bankruptcy: Jeyhun Abbasov
1704: Structural Budget Balances in Oil-rich Countries: The Cases of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia: Vugar Ahmadov, Ulvi Sarkarli and Ramiz Rahmanov
1703: Are fiscal rules helpful in mitigating the impact of oil market fluctuations?: Fuad Mammadov and Shaig Adigozalov
1702: Exchange rate elasticity of exports and the role of institutions: Aygun Garayeva and Gulzar Tahirova
1701: The exchange rate pass-through to CPI inflation and its components in Azerbaijan: Vugar Rahimov and Nigar Jafarova
1609: Permanent and Temporary Oil Price Shocks, Macroeconomic Policy, and Tradable Non-oil Sector: Case of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia: Ramiz Rahmanov
1608: A small scale forecasting and simulation model for Azerbaijan (FORSAZ): Salman Huseynov and Fuad Mammadov
1607: Determinants of Inflation in Azerbaijan: Vugar Rahimov, Shaig Adigozalov and Fuad Mammadov
1605: Government Spending Effectiveness and The Quality of Fiscal Institutions: Aygun Garayeva and Gulzar Tahirova
1604: Banking Competition and Financial Stability: Evidence from CIS Countries: Javid Nabiyev, Kanan Musayev and Leyla Yusifzada
1603: Determinants of Depositors’ Behaviour: Heterogeneous Panel Estimates: Leyla Mammadova, Aytan Mammadova, Fuad Mammadov and Leyla Yusifzada
1602: The Labor Market in Azerbaijan: Ramiz Rahmanov, Asif Gasimov and Gulzar Tahirova
1601: Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?: Vugar Ahmadov, Shaig Adigozalov, Salman Huseynov, Fuad Mammadov and Vugar Rahimov
1508: Modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables of the national economy: problems and practical issues: Mehdi Mehdiyev, Vugar Ahmadov, Salman Huseynov and Fuad Mammadov
1507: Operational framework of inflation targeting: what promises do country experiences make to the CBAR?: Salman Huseynov and Shaig Adigozalov
1506: Extracting risk-neutral probability distribution from Brent oil options: Vugar Ahmadov, Salman Huseynov, Fuad Mammadov and Tural Karimli
1505: Beating random walk: â€œhard timesâ€ for forecasting inflation in postâ€ oil boom years?: Salman Huseynov, Vugar Ahmadov and Shaig Adigozalov
1504: The relationship between economic growth and income inequality and its institutional aspects: Gulzar Tahirova and Ramiz Rahmanov
1503: Indicator Based Forecasting of Business Cycles: Fuad Mammadov and Shaig Adigozalov
1502: Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth: Leyla Yusifzada and Aytan Mammadova
1501: Budget expenditures and Input-Output model: Ceyhun Abbasov and Murad Yusifov