Forecasting of Global Food Prices Adjusted for Import Weights

Farida Valiyeva ()
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Farida Valiyeva: Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic

No 2403, Working Papers from Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic

Abstract: This study focuses on forecasting a modified global food price index that incorporates the weights of food products in Azerbaijan’s import basket. The estimation was carried out by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model using quarterly time series data for 2002-2024. Empirical results indicate that the modified global food price index better captures domestic food inflation dynamics. It should be noted that, the correlation coefficient between this index and domestic food inflation is higher (0.48) compared to indices published by other international institutions such as the IMF, FAO, and the World Bank. These findings suggest that forecasting the modified index offers a more precise framework for evaluating the possible impacts of global food market developments on Azerbaijan.

Keywords: global food prices; food inflation; inflation; ARDL (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E37 Q11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 14 pages
Date: 2024-03-15
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aze:wpaper:2403

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