Populism and Kept Promises: Evidence from U.S. Congress Candidates and Legislators

Luca Vitale

No 22175, BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers from BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy

Abstract: This paper documents a strong relationship between populist strategy and commitment to simple policies during the electoral campaign by U.S. Congress candidates. Using data from U.S. Congress elections of 2018 and 2020, I provide evidence that an increase in commitment is associated with an increase in populist rhetoric in candidates' platforms. Moreover, populists seem to keep their promises after the elections. Analysing texts from 2019 Congressional records' shows that legislators who chose a populist strategy during the electoral campaign present policies systematically more similar to their campaign speeches compared to non-populist legislators. The results confirm the predictions of theoretical models present in the literature, emphasising the simplistic and unrealistic character of populist politicians.

Keywords: populism; text analysis; electoral campaigns; commitment dictionary (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm
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