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Pensions and Fertility: Micro-Economic Evidence

Alexander Danzer () and Lennard Zyska ()

No 192, Working Papers from Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE)

Abstract: This study identi?es the causal e?ect of pension generosity on women’s fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil’s expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Event study, di?erence-in-di?erences and instrumental variable methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women in fertile age by 10% in the short-run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the Pay-As-You-Go pension system in the long-run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women and among mothers with sons.

Keywords: Pension wealth; Fertility; Old-age security hypothesis; Quasi-experiment; PAYG; Brazil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J13 I38 H55 D15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 68 pages
Date: 2020-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-dem
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http://www.bgpe.de/texte/DP/192_Danzer_Zyska.pdf First version, 2020 (application/pdf)

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