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Pensions and Fertility: Micro-Economic Evidence

Alexander Danzer () and Lennard Zyska ()

No 8173, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women’s fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil’s expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Event study, difference-in-differences and instrumental variable methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women in fertile age by 10% in the short-run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the Pay-As-You-Go pension system in the long-run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women and among mothers with sons.

Keywords: pension wealth; fertility; old-age security hypothesis; quasi-experiment; PAYG; Brazil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D15 H55 I38 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age
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Working Paper: Pensions and Fertility: Micro-Economic Evidence (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Pensions and Fertility: Micro-Economic Evidence (2020) Downloads
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