Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment
Tony Chernis and
Discussion Papers from Bank of Canada
This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components. Using a two-step combination procedure, the nowcasts are first combined within model classes and then merged into a single point forecast using simple performance-based weighting methods. We find that no single model clearly dominates over all forecast horizons, subsamples and target variables. This highlights that when operating in an uncertain environment, where the choice of model is not clear, combining forecasts is a prudent strategy.
Keywords: Econometric; and; statistical; methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E52 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets, nep-for and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bca:bocadp:18-9
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Discussion Papers from Bank of Canada 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().