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Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel américain

Marc-André Gosselin and René Lalonde

Staff Working Papers from Bank of Canada

Keywords: Potential Output; Econometric and Statistical Methods; Business Fluctuations and Cycles. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E23 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 55 pages Abstract: The authors describe the principal results obtained from a new method applied to the estimation of potential U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). This method derives from the work of Rennison (2002), which suggests that the joint use of extended multivariate filters and structural vector autoregressions is optimal for estimating potential output. The authors use this approach to estimate the two components of potential GDP: the full-employment labour input and the labourproductivity trend. This decomposition is particularly useful for identifying sources of fluctuations in potential GDP. For example, it reveals that the vigorous growth rate of potential GDP recorded during the second half of the 1990s is attributable to a fall in the structural rate of unemployment and a marked upswing in the growth rate of the productivity trend. This approach also reveals that the excess supply observed in the second quarter of 2002 is entirely attributable to the fact that the labour input was below its equilibrium level.
Date: 2002
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