Staff Working Papers

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23-56: International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers

Sami Alpanda, Uluc Aysun and Serdar Kabaca

23-55: Uncovering the Differences Among Displaced Workers: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records

Serdar Birinci, Youngmin Park, Thomas Pugh and Kurt See

23-54: Borrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans

Michael Boutros, Nuno Clara and Francisco Gomes

23-53: Identifying Nascent High-Growth Firms Using Machine Learning

Stephanie Houle and Ryan Macdonald

23-52: Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy

Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan and Kurt See

23-51: Intermediary Market Power and Capital Constraints

Jason Allen and Milena Wittwer

23-50: Anonymous Credentials: Secret-Free and Quantum-Safe

Raza Kazmi and Cyrus Minwalla

23-49: Should Banks Be Worried About Dividend Restrictions?

Josef Schroth

23-48: The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During Recessions

Soyoung Lee

23-47: Labour Supply and Firm Size

Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail and Emircan Yurdagul

23-46: International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects

Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim and Galip Kemal Ozhan

23-45: Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis

Tony Chernis

23-44: A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight

Seunghoon Na and Yinxi Xie

23-43: Competition for Exclusivity and Customer Lock-in: Evidence from Copyright Enforcement in China

Youming Liu

23-42: Understanding DeFi Through the Lens of a Production-Network Model

Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl, Hanna Yu and Shengxing Zhang

23-41: Flagship Entry in Online Marketplaces

Ginger Zhe Jin, Zhentong Lu, Xiaolu Zhou and Lu Fang

23-40: Generalized Autoregressive Gamma Processes

Bruno Feunou

23-39: Is Money Essential? An Experimental Approach

Janet Jiang, Peter Norman, Daniela Puzzello, Bruno Sultanum and Randall Wright

23-38: Is Climate Transition Risk Priced into Corporate Credit Risk? Evidence from Credit Default Swaps

Andrea Ugolini, Juan Reboredo and Javier Ojea Ferreiro

23-37: Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls

Temel Taskin and Franz Ulrich Ruch

23-36: What People Believe About Monetary Finance and What We Can(’t) Do About It: Evidence from a Large-Scale, Multi-Country Survey Experiment

Cars Hommes, Julien Pinter and Isabelle Salle

23-35: Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Market Power, and Wholesale Funding Reliance

Amina Enkhbold

23-34: Unpacking Moving: A Quantitative Spatial Equilibrium Model with Wealth

Elisa Giannone, Qi Li, Nuno Miguel Marques da Paixao and Xinle Pang

23-33: Privacy-Preserving Post-Quantum Credentials for Digital Payments

Raza Ali Kazmi, Duc-Phong Le and Cyrus Minwalla

23-32: SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova and Nicholas Sander

23-31: The Macroeconomic Effects of Portfolio Equity Inflows

Nick Sander

23-30: Understanding Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Government Expenditures

Chang Liu and Yinxi Xie

23-29: Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Matteo Cacciatore, Stefano Gnocchi and Daniela Hauser

23-28: Crowdfunding and Risk

David Cimon

23-27: An Investigation into the Effects of Border Carbon Adjustments on the Canadian Economy

Y.-H. Henry Chen, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Craig Johnston, Sergey Paltsev and Marie-Christine Tremblay

23-26: How Banks Create Gridlock to Save Liquidity in Canada's Large Value Payment System

Rodney Garratt, Zhentong Lu and Phoebe Tian

23-25: Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence

John Duffy, Janet Jiang and Huan Xie

23-24: From LVTS to Lynx: Quantitative Assessment of Payment System Transition

Ajit Desai, Zhentong Lu, Hiru Rodrigo, Jacob Sharples, Phoebe Tian and Nellie Zhang

23-23: Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media

Alistair Macaulay and Wenting Song

23-22: The Impact of Unemployment Insurance and Unsecured Credit on Business Cycles

Michael Irwin

23-21: Trade and Diffusion of Embodied Technology: An Empirical Analysis

Stephen Ayerst, Faisal Ibrahim, Gaelan MacKenzie and Swapnika Rachapalli

23-20: Demographic Origins of the Decline in Labor’s Share

Andrew Glover and Jacob Short

23-19: Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic

Serdar Kabaca and Kerem Tuzcuoglu

23-18: Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey

Carola Binder and Rodrigo Sekkel

23-17: Persistent Debt and Business Cycles in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity

Aubhik Khan and Soyoung Lee

23-16: Cost Pass-Through with Capacity Constraints and International Linkages

Reinhard Ellwanger, Hinnerk Gnutzmann and Piotr Śpiewanowski

23-15: We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress

Anson T. Y. Ho, Kim Huynh, David Jacho-Chávez and Geneviève Vallée

23-14: On the Fragility of DeFi Lending

Jonathan Chiu, Emre Ozdenoren, Kathy Yuan and Shengxing Zhang

23-13: Learning in a Complex World: Insights from an OLG Lab Experiment

Cars Hommes, Stefanie Huber, Daria Minina and Isabelle Salle

23-12: The Role of Intermediaries in Selection Markets: Evidence from Mortgage Lending

Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Jean-François Houde, Shaoteng Li and Anna Trubnikova

23-11: Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory

Janet Jiang, Daniela Puzzello and Cathy Zhang

23-10: Exporting and Investment Under Credit Constraints

Kim Huynh, Robert Petrunia, Joel Rodrigue and Walter Steingress

23-9: Fiscal Stimulus and Skill Accumulation over the Life Cycle

Laure Simon

23-8: Climate Variability and International Trade

Geoffrey Dunbar, Walter Steingress and Ben Tomlin

23-7: Stress Relief? Funding Structures and Resilience to the Covid Shock

Kristin Forbes, Christian Friedrich and Dennis Reinhardt