Staff Working Papers

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20-54: Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic

Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan and Kurt See

20-53: Safe Payments

Jonathan Chiu, S. Mohammad R. Davoodalhosseini, Janet Hua Jiang and Yu Zhu

20-52: The Determinants of Consumers' Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and Canada

Charles Bellemare, Rolande Kpekou Tossou and Kevin Moran

20-51: The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 on Canadian Household Consumption, Debt and Savings

James (Jim) MacGee, Thomas Michael Pugh and Kurt See

20-50: A Macroeconomic Model of an Epidemic with Silent Transmission and Endogenous Self-isolation

Antonio Diez de los Rios

20-49: Optimal Quantitative Easing in a Monetary Union

Serdar Kabaca, Renske Maas, Kostas(Konstantinos) Mavromatis and Romanos Priftis

20-48: Short-Run Dynamics in a Search-Theoretic Model of Monetary Exchange

Jonathan Chiu and Miguel Molico

20-47: How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle?

Serdar Birinci and Kurt See

20-46: Earnings Dynamics and Intergenerational Transmission of Skill

Lance Lochner and Youngmin Park

20-45: Understanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors

Yunjong Eo, Luis Uzeda and Benjamin Wong

20-44: Production Networks and the Propagation of Commodity Price Shocks

Shutao Cao and Wei Dong

20-43: Outside Investor Access to Top Management: Market Monitoring versus Stock Price Manipulation

Josef Schroth

20-42: On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity

Ruben Hipp

20-41: Interbank Asset-Liability Networks with Fire Sale Management

Zachary Feinstein and Grzegorz Halaj

20-40: Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach

Christopher Sutherland

20-39: The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil

Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Reinhard Ellwanger and Stephen Snudden

20-38: Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models

Barbara Sadaba, Sunčica Vujić and Sofia Maier

20-37: Predicting Payment Migration in Canada

Anneke Kosse, Zhentong Lu and Gabriel Xerri

20-36: Child Skill Production: Accounting for Parental and Market-Based Time and Goods Investments

Elizabeth Caucutt, Lance Lochner, Joseph Mullins and Youngmin Park

20-35: Why Do Central Banks Make Public Announcements of Open Market Operations?

Narayan Bulusu

20-34: Monetary Policy and Cross-Border Interbank Market Fragmentation: Lessons from the Crisis

Tobias Blattner and Jonathan Swarbrick

20-33: Survival Analysis of Banknote Circulation: Fitness, Network Structure and Machine Learning

Diego Rojas, Juan Estrada, Kim Huynh and David Jacho-Chávez

20-32: The Interplay of Financial Education, Financial Literacy, Financial Inclusion and Financial Stability: Any Lessons for the Current Big Tech Era?

Nicole Jonker and Anneke Kosse

20-31: Average is Good Enough: Average-inflation Targeting and the ELB

Robert Amano, Stefano Gnocchi, Sylvain Leduc and Joel Wagner

20-30: Ten isn’t large! Group size and coordination in a large-scale experiment

Jasmina Arifovic, Cars Hommes, Anita Kopányi-Peuker and Isabelle Salle

20-29: Maturity Composition and the Demand for Government Debt

Jason Allen, Jakub Kastl and Milena Wittwer

20-28: Non-competing Data Intermediaries

Shota Ichihashi

20-27: Why Fixed Costs Matter for Proof-of-Work Based Cryptocurrencies

Rodney Garratt and Maarten van Oordt

20-26: Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle

Jonathan Witmer

20-25: Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle

Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin and Danilo Leiva-Leon

20-24: An Economic Perspective on Payments Migration

Anneke Kosse, Zhentong Lu and Gabriel Xerri

20-23: Trading for Bailouts

Toni Ahnert, Caio Machado and Ana Elisa Pereira

20-22: Dynamic Competition in Negotiated Price Markets

Jason Allen and Shaoteng Li

20-21: Classical Decomposition of Markowitz Portfolio Selection

Christopher Demone, Olivia Di Matteo and Barbara Collignon

20-20: Trading on Long-term Information

Corey Garriot and Ryan Riordan

20-19: The Term Structures of Loss and Gain Uncertainty

Bruno Feunou, Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin, Roméo Tedongap and Lai Xu

20-18: How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers

Katya Kartashova and Xiaoqing Zhou

20-17: Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation

Xing Guo

20-16: Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions

Danilo Leiva-Leon and Luis Uzeda

20-15: A Simple Method for Extracting the Probability of Default from American Put Option Prices

Bo Young Chang and Greg Orosi

20-14: Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields

Guihai Zhao

20-13: Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool

Fabio Ghironi and Galip Ozhan

20-12: Multi-Product Pricing: Theory and Evidence from Large Retailers in Israel

Marco Bonomo, Carlos Carvalho, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Sigal Ribon and Rodolfo Rigato

20-11: Optimal Taxation in Asset Markets with Adverse Selection

S. Mohammad R. Davoodalhosseini

20-10: Do Protectionist Trade Policies Integrate Domestic Markets? Evidence from the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute

Jinggang Guo and Craig Johnston

20-9: Welfare Analysis of Equilibria With and Without Early Termination Fees in the US Wireless Industry

Joseph Cullen, Nicolas Schutz and Oleksandr Shcherbakov

20-8: The Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Markets: Evidence from Oil Inventory News

Ron Alquist, Reinhard Ellwanger and Jianjian Jin

20-7: Demand for Payment Services and Consumer Welfare: The Introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency

Kim Huynh, Jozsef Molnar, Oleksandr Shcherbakov and Qinghui Yu

20-6: A Portfolio-Balance Model of Inflation and Yield Curve Determination

Antonio Diez de los Rios

20-5: Identifying Consumer-Welfare Changes when Online Search Platforms Change Their List of Search Results

Ryan Martin