Staff Working Papers

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21-11: A Generalized Endogenous Grid Method for Default Risk Models

Youngsoo Jang and Soyoung Lee

21-10: Monetary Policy Pass-Through with Central Bank Digital Currency

Janet Hua and Yu Zhu

21-9: Market Concentration and Uniform Pricing: Evidence from Bank Mergers

João Granja and Nuno Miguel Marques da Paixao

21-8: Distributional Effects of Payment Card Pricing and Merchant Cost Pass-through in Canada and the United States

Marie-Helene Felt, Fumiko Hayashi, Joanna Stavins and Angelika Welte

21-7: Estimating Policy Functions in Payments Systems Using Reinforcement Learning

Pablo S. Castro, Ajit Desai, Han Du, Rodney Garratt and Francisco Rivadeneyra

21-6: Eggs in One Basket: Security and Convenience of Digital Currencies

Charles Kahn, Francisco Rivadeneyra and Russell Wong

21-5: (Optimal) Monetary Policy with and without Debt

Boris Chafwehé, Rigas Oikonomou, Romanos Priftis and Lukas Vogel

21-4: Networking the Yield Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy

Tatjana Dahlhaus, Julia Schaumburg and Tatevik Sekhposyan

21-3: Chinese Monetary Policy and Text Analytics: Connecting Words and Deeds

Jeannine Bailliu, Xinfen Han, Barbara Sadaba and Mark Kruger

21-2: Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19

James Chapman and Ajit Desai

21-1: Allocative Efficiency and Aggregate Productivity Growth in Canada and the United States

Lin Shao and Rongsheng Tang

20-57: Consumer Credit with Over-optimistic Borrowers

Florian Exler, Igor Livshits, James (Jim) MacGee and Michele Tertilt

20-56: Losing Contact: The Impact of Contactless Payments on Cash Usage

Marie-Helene Felt

20-55: Strategic Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service

Lerby Ergun and Andreas Uthemann

20-54: Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic

Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan and Kurt See

20-53: Safe Payments

Jonathan Chiu, S. Mohammad R. Davoodalhosseini, Janet Hua Jiang and Yu Zhu

20-52: The Determinants of Consumers' Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and Canada

Charles Bellemare, Rolande Kpekou Tossou and Kevin Moran

20-51: The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 on Canadian Household Consumption, Debt and Savings

James (Jim) MacGee, Thomas Michael Pugh and Kurt See

20-50: A Macroeconomic Model of an Epidemic with Silent Transmission and Endogenous Self-isolation

Antonio Diez de los Rios

20-49: Optimal Quantitative Easing in a Monetary Union

Serdar Kabaca, Renske Maas, Kostas(Konstantinos) Mavromatis and Romanos Priftis

20-48: Short-Run Dynamics in a Search-Theoretic Model of Monetary Exchange

Jonathan Chiu and Miguel Molico

20-47: How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle?

Serdar Birinci and Kurt See

20-46: Earnings Dynamics and Intergenerational Transmission of Skill

Lance Lochner and Youngmin Park

20-45: Understanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors

Yunjong Eo, Luis Uzeda and Benjamin Wong

20-44: Production Networks and the Propagation of Commodity Price Shocks

Shutao Cao and Wei Dong

20-43: Outside Investor Access to Top Management: Market Monitoring versus Stock Price Manipulation

Josef Schroth

20-42: On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity

Ruben Hipp

20-41: Interbank Asset-Liability Networks with Fire Sale Management

Zachary Feinstein and Grzegorz Halaj

20-40: Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach

Christopher Sutherland

20-39: The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil

Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Reinhard Ellwanger and Stephen Snudden

20-38: Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models

Barbara Sadaba, Sunčica Vujić and Sofia Maier

20-37: Predicting Payment Migration in Canada

Anneke Kosse, Zhentong Lu and Gabriel Xerri

20-36: Child Skill Production: Accounting for Parental and Market-Based Time and Goods Investments

Elizabeth Caucutt, Lance Lochner, Joseph Mullins and Youngmin Park

20-35: Why Do Central Banks Make Public Announcements of Open Market Operations?

Narayan Bulusu

20-34: Monetary Policy and Cross-Border Interbank Market Fragmentation: Lessons from the Crisis

Tobias Blattner and Jonathan Swarbrick

20-33: Survival Analysis of Banknote Circulation: Fitness, Network Structure and Machine Learning

Diego Rojas, Juan Estrada, Kim Huynh and David Jacho-Chávez

20-32: The Interplay of Financial Education, Financial Literacy, Financial Inclusion and Financial Stability: Any Lessons for the Current Big Tech Era?

Nicole Jonker and Anneke Kosse

20-31: Average is Good Enough: Average-inflation Targeting and the ELB

Robert Amano, Stefano Gnocchi, Sylvain Leduc and Joel Wagner

20-30: Ten isn’t large! Group size and coordination in a large-scale experiment

Jasmina Arifovic, Cars Hommes, Anita Kopányi-Peuker and Isabelle Salle

20-29: Maturity Composition and the Demand for Government Debt

Jason Allen, Jakub Kastl and Milena Wittwer

20-28: Non-competing Data Intermediaries

Shota Ichihashi

20-27: Why Fixed Costs Matter for Proof-of-Work Based Cryptocurrencies

Rodney Garratt and Maarten van Oordt

20-26: Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle

Jonathan Witmer

20-25: Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle

Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin and Danilo Leiva-Leon

20-24: An Economic Perspective on Payments Migration

Anneke Kosse, Zhentong Lu and Gabriel Xerri

20-23: Trading for Bailouts

Toni Ahnert, Caio Machado and Ana Elisa Pereira

20-22: Dynamic Competition in Negotiated Price Markets

Jason Allen and Shaoteng Li

20-21: Classical Decomposition of Markowitz Portfolio Selection

Christopher Demone, Olivia Di Matteo and Barbara Collignon

20-20: Trading on Long-term Information

Corey Garriot and Ryan Riordan

20-19: The Term Structures of Loss and Gain Uncertainty

Bruno Feunou, Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin, Roméo Tedongap and Lai Xu