Networking the Yield Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy

Tatjana Dahlhaus, Julia Schaumburg and Tatevik Sekhposyan

Staff Working Papers from Bank of Canada

Abstract: We introduce a flexible, time-varying network model to trace the propagation of interest rate surprises across different maturities. First, we develop a novel econometric framework that allows for unknown, potentially asymmetric contemporaneous spillovers across panel units and establish the finite sample properties of the model via simulations. Second, we employ this innovative framework to jointly model the dynamics of interest rate surprises and to assess how various monetary policy actions—for example, short-term, long-term interest rate targeting and forward guidance—propagate across the yield curve. We find that the network of interest rate surprises is indeed asymmetric and defined by spillovers between adjacent maturities. Spillover intensity is high on average but shows strong time variation. Forward guidance is an important driver of the spillover intensity. Pass-through from short-term interest rate surprises to longer maturities is muted, yet there are stronger spillovers associated with surprises at medium- and long-term maturities. We illustrate how our proposed framework helps our understanding of the ways various dimensions of monetary policy propagate through the yield curve and interact with each other.

Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods; Interest rates; Monetary policy implementation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2021-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/swp2021-4.pdf Full text (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Networking the yield curve: implications for monetary policy (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bca:bocawp:21-4

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Staff Working Papers from Bank of Canada 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().