Staff Working Papers

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24-14: Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals

Olena Kostyshyna, Tolga Özden and Yang Zhang

24-13: Parallel Tempering for DSGE Estimation

Joshua Brault

24-12: U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields

Bingxin Xing, Bruno Feunou, Morvan Nongni-Donfack and Rodrigo Sekkel

24-11: Unintended Consequences of the Home Affordable Refinance Program

Phoebe Tian and Chen Zheng

24-10: Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach

Antoine Poulin-Moore and Kerem Tuzcuoglu

24-9: Monetary Policy Transmission Through Shadow and Traditional Banks

Yuteng Cheng and Ryuichiro Izumi

24-8: Monetary Policy Transmission Through Shadow and Traditional Banks

Amina Enkhbold

24-7: Regulation, Emissions and Productivity: Evidence from China’s Eleventh Five-Year Plan

Brantly Callaway, Tong Li, Joel Rodrigue, Yuya Sasaki and Yong Tan

24-6: Decomposing Large Banks’ Systemic Trading Losses

Radoslav Raykov

24-5: How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty

Tao Wang

24-4: Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking Choices

Jiaqi Li, Andrew Usher and Yu Zhu

24-3: The Role of International Financial Integration in Monetary Policy Transmission

Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie and Ji Zhang

24-2: The Role of Long-Term Contracting in Business Lending

Phoebe Tian

24-1: Extreme Weather and Low-Income Household Finance: Evidence from Payday Loans

Shihan Xie, Victoria Wenxin Xie and Xu Zhang

23-63: Communicating Inflation Uncertainty and Household Expectations Metropolitan Areas

Olena Kostyshyna and Luba Petersen

23-62: Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality in Housing Markets: A Study of 140 US Metropolitan Areas

Qi Li and Xu Zhang

23-61: Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function

Tony Chernis, Niko Hauzenberger, Florian Huber, Gary Koop and James Mitchell

23-60: Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy

Agostina Brinatti and Xing Guo

23-59: Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models

Tao Wang

23-58: Testing Collusion and Cooperation in Binary Choice Games

Erhao Xie

23-57: Immigration and Provision of Public Goods: Evidence at the Local Level in the U.S

Anna Maria Mayda, Mine Senses and Walter Steingress

23-56: International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers

Sami Alpanda, Uluc Aysun and Serdar Kabaca

23-55: The Heterogeneous Impacts of Job Displacement: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records

Serdar Birinci, Youngmin Park and Kurt See

23-54: Borrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans

Michael Boutros, Nuno Clara and Francisco Gomes

23-53: Identifying Nascent High-Growth Firms Using Machine Learning

Stephanie Houle and Ryan Macdonald

23-52: Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy

Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan and Kurt See

23-51: Intermediary Market Power and Capital Constraints

Jason Allen and Milena Wittwer

23-50: Anonymous Credentials: Secret-Free and Quantum-Safe

Raza Kazmi and Cyrus Minwalla

23-49: Should Banks Be Worried About Dividend Restrictions?

Josef Schroth

23-48: The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During Recessions

Soyoung Lee

23-47: Labour Supply and Firm Size

Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail and Emircan Yurdagul

23-46: International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects

Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim and Galip Ozhan

23-45: Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis

Tony Chernis

23-44: A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight

Seunghoon Na and Yinxi Xie

23-43: Competition for Exclusivity and Customer Lock-in: Evidence from Copyright Enforcement in China

Youming Liu

23-42: Understanding DeFi Through the Lens of a Production-Network Model

Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl, Hanna Yu and Shengxing Zhang

23-41: Flagship Entry in Online Marketplaces

Ginger Zhe Jin, Zhentong Lu, Xiaolu Zhou and Lu Fang

23-40: Generalized Autoregressive Gamma Processes

Bruno Feunou

23-39: Is Money Essential? An Experimental Approach

Janet Hua Jiang, Peter Norman, Daniela Puzzello, Bruno Sultanum and Randall Wright

23-38: Is Climate Transition Risk Priced into Corporate Credit Risk? Evidence from Credit Default Swaps

Andrea Ugolini, Juan Reboredo and Javier Ojea Ferreiro

23-37: Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls

Temel Taskin and Franz Ruch

23-36: What People Believe About Monetary Finance and What We Can(’t) Do About It: Evidence from a Large-Scale, Multi-Country Survey Experiment

Cars Hommes, Julien Pinter and Isabelle Salle

23-35: Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Market Power, and Wholesale Funding Reliance

Amina Enkhbold

23-34: Unpacking Moving: A Quantitative Spatial Equilibrium Model with Wealth

Elisa Giannone, Qi Li, Nuno Miguel Marques da Paixao and Xinle Pang

23-33: Privacy-Preserving Post-Quantum Credentials for Digital Payments

Raza Ali Kazmi, Duc-Phong Le and Cyrus Minwalla

23-32: SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova and Nicholas Sander

23-31: The Macroeconomic Effects of Portfolio Equity Inflows

Nick Sander

23-30: Understanding Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Government Expenditures

Chang Liu and Yinxi Xie

23-29: Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Matteo Cacciatore, Stefano Gnocchi and Daniela Hauser

23-28: Crowdfunding and Risk

David Cimon