Economics at your fingertips  

Balance Sheets of Financial Intermediaries: Do They Forecast Economic Activity?

Rodrigo Sekkel

Staff Working Papers from Bank of Canada

Abstract: This paper conducts a real-time, out-of-sample analysis of the forecasting power of various aggregate financial intermediaries’ balance sheets to a wide range of economic activity measures in the United States. I find evidence that the balance sheets of leveraged financial institutions do have out-of-sample predictive power for future economic activity, and this predictability arises mainly through the housing sector. Nevertheless, I show that these variables have very little predictive power during periods of economic expansions and that predictability arises mainly during the financial crisis period.

Keywords: Econometric; and; statistical; methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)

Related works:
Journal Article: Balance sheets of financial intermediaries: Do they forecast economic activity? (2015) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Staff Working Papers from Bank of Canada 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().

Page updated 2023-03-05
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:14-40