A Wake-Up-Call Theory of Contagion

Toni Ahnert and Christoph Bertsch

Staff Working Papers from Bank of Canada

Abstract: We propose a novel theory of financial contagion. We study global coordination games of regime change in two regions with an initially uncertain correlation of regional fundamentals. A crisis in region 1 is a wake-up call to investors in region 2 that induces a reassessment of local fundamentals. Contagion after a wake-up call can occur even if investors learn that fundamentals are uncorrelated and common lender effects or balancesheet linkages are absent. Applicable to currency attacks, bank runs and debt crises, our theory of contagion is supported by existing evidence and generates a new testable implication for empirical work.

Keywords: Exchange rates; Financial stability; International financial markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D82 F3 G01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 61 pages
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-opm
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Related works:
Journal Article: A Wake-Up Call Theory of Contagion* (2022)
Working Paper: A Wake-Up Call Theory of Contagion (2022)
Working Paper: A Wake-Up Call Theory of Contagion (2021)
Working Paper: A wake-up call: information contagion and strategic uncertainty (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bca:bocawp:15-14

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