The Geography of Pandemic Containment
Nuno Miguel Marques da Paixao and
Staff Working Papers from Bank of Canada
How does interconnectedness affect the course of a pandemic? What are the optimal within- and between-state containment policies? We embed a spatial SIR model into a multi-sector quantitative trade model. We calibrate it to US states and the COVID-19 pandemic and find that interconnectedness increases the death toll by 146,200 lives. A local within-state containment policy minimizes welfare losses relative to a national policy or to one that reduces mobility between states. The optimal policy combines local within- and between-state restrictions and saves 289,300 lives. This optimal policy induces a peak reduction in mobility of 25.97% that saves approximately 23% more lives. Different timing of policies across states is key to minimize losses. States like South Carolina might have imposed internal lockdowns too early but travel restrictions too late.
Keywords: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19); Economic models; Regional economic developments (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 H0 I1 R1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/swp2021-26.pdf Full text (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bca:bocawp:21-26
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Staff Working Papers from Bank of Canada 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().