Les provinces canadiennes et la convergence: une evaluation empirique

Mario Lefebvre
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Mario Lefebvre: Bank of Canada

Staff Working Papers from Bank of Canada

Abstract: This paper examines whether the hypothesis of economic convergence holds for the Canadian provinces. Using data on real gross domestic product per capita and on factor productivity from 1966 to 1992, the paper shows, using two different methods, that the convergence hypothesis cannot be rejected. This evidence supports the findings of other authors who have studied convergence among Canadian provinces. The first method estimates the relationship between the average growth rate in real per capita GDP and its initial level. In part because of the classic problem of regression towards the mean, it has been argued that this method is not suitable for testing the convergence hypothesis. The second method examines the trend in gaps in real per capita GDP and productivity between the richest provinces and the other provinces. It is the use of this method that distinguishes our work from previous studies, since it allows us not only to avoid some of the criticisms mentioned above, but also to examine developments in each province separately. Cette etude a pour but de determiner si l'hypothese de convergence economique s'applique aux provinces canadiennes. En utilisant les donnees du produit interieur brut reel par habitant et de la productivite des facteurs de production entre 1966 et 1992, l'etude montre, a l'aide de deux methodes distinctes, que l'on ne peut rejeter cette hypothese. Ce resultat confirme les conclusions auxquelles sont parvenus d'autres auteurs qui ont examine le phenomene de la convergence entre les provinces canadiennes. La premiere methode utilisee consiste a estimer la relation qui existe entre la croissance moyenne et le niveau initial du PIB reel par habitant. Se fondant entre autres sur le probleme classique du retour a la moyenne, certains chercheurs ont reproche a cette methode de ne pas tester adequatement l'hypothese de la convergence. La deuxieme methode, quant a elle, consiste a examiner la tendance des ecarts observes entre, d'une part, le niveau du PIB reel par habitant et de la productivite dans les provinces les plus riches et, d'autre part, le niveau de chacune de ces deux variables dans les autres provinces. L'etude se distingue de celles qui ont ete realisees jusqu'ici sur le sujet par l'utilisation de la deuxieme methode, qui, en plus de contourner les critiques mentionnees ci-dessus, nous a permis d'examiner separement le comportement de chaque province.

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