A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1

Joseph Atta-Mensah

Staff Working Papers from Bank of Canada

Abstract: This paper examines the performance of M1 in an indicator model of inflation over time horizons as long as 16 quarters into the future. The central conclusion of the paper is that, in addtion to the output gap, the cumulative growth of M1 and the deviations of M1 from its long-run path provide "distant-early-warning" information about the future path of inflation.

Keywords: ECONOMIC MODELS; INFLATION (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 1996
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bca:bocawp:96-15

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