Assessing global potential output growth: April 2026

Daniel de Munnik, Kristina Hess, Walter Muiruri, Tuuli McCully, Faiza Noor, Sabreena Obaid, Andrew Plummer, Louis Poirier, Abeer Reza and Jillian Schwartz

No 2026-20, Staff Analytical Papers from Bank of Canada

Abstract: We present the annual update of the Bank of Canada staff estimates for global potential output growth. Growth in global potential output is expected to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon at just above 3%, underpinned by the general strength in trend productivity growth, including a boost from the adoption of artificial intelligence tools. Partially offsetting these gains are higher tariffs and persistent uncertainty about trade policy that hamper productivity and suppress capital deepening. In addition, population aging slows growth in trend labour input across all regions. These estimates served as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2026 Monetary Policy Report.

Keywords: Models and tools; Econometric, statistical and computational methods; Monetary policy; Real economy and forecasting; Structural challenges; Demographics and labour supply; Digitalization and productivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E1 E2 F0 F1 O33 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bca:bocsap:26-20

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