Behavior and Effects of Equity Foreign Investors on Emerging Markets

Barbara Alemanni and Jose Ornelas

No 159, Working Papers Series from Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department

Abstract: This paper analyzes empirically the behavior of foreign investors on emerging equity markets in a cross-country setting, including 14 emerging markets from the year 2000 to 2005. We could find little evidence that these investors have brought problems to local emerging markets. Foreign investors seem to build and unwind their positions on emerging stock markets slowly enough to avoid problems as price pressure or volatility and kurtosis upswings on the stock market. Also, no negative effects on the foreign exchange market could be found. Regarding feedback trading, we support two hypotheses: positive feedback trading by hedged investors and negative feedback trading by unhedged investors. The latter has stronger statistical evidence and is more likely to occur in the real world. We conclude that there is no reason to impose long-term restrictions to foreign flows.

Date: 2008-02
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