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Working Papers Series

From Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department
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587: Predicting Recessions in (almost) Real Time in a Big-data Setting Downloads
Alexandre Costa, Pedro Ferreira, Wagner Gaglianone, Osmani Guillén, João Issler and Artur Rodrigues
586: Industry and Securities Market Influences on Indebtedness: evidence from a large dataset from Brazil Downloads
Flavio Docha and Luiza Rodrigues
585: A Little Less Uncertain about the Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity Downloads
Marcelo Aragão and Fabia Carvalho
584: Labor Market and Systemic Risk: a network-based approach Downloads
Michel Alexandre and Thiago Silva
583: The Value of Clean Water: evidence from an environmental disaster Downloads
Rodrigo Gonzalez, Jose Ornelas and Thiago Silva
582: A Novel Credit Model Risk Measure: does more data lead to lower model risk in credit scoring models? Downloads
Valter Jr, Alan Genaro, Rafael Schiozer and Toni Ricardo dos Santos
581: Bayesian Local Projections Downloads
Leonardo Ferreira, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Giovanni Ricco
580: Information Sharing, Access to Finance, Loan Contract Design, and the Labor Market Downloads
Thorsten Beck, Patrick Behr and Raquel Oliveira
579: Government Banks and Interventions in Credit Markets Downloads
Gustavo Joaquim, Felipe Netto and José Ornelas
578: Brazilian Macroeconomic Dynamics Redux: Shocks, Frictions, and Unemployment in SAMBA Model Downloads
Angelo Fasolo, Eurilton Araújo, Marcos Jorge, Alexandre Kornelius and Leonardo Marinho
577: The Information Content from Lending Relationships Across the Supply Chain Downloads
Theo Martins, Rafael Schiozer and Fernando Linardi
576: Banks’ Physical Footprint and Financial Technology Adoption Downloads
Lucas Mariani, Jose Ornelas and Bernardo Ricca
575: Effects of Sustainable Monetary and Fiscal Policy on FDI Inflows to EMDE Countries Downloads
Bruno Tiberto and Helder de Mendonça
574: Anchoring Long-term VAR Forecasts Based On Survey Data and State-space Models Downloads
Marta Areosa and Wagner Gaglianone
573: Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited Downloads
Leonardo Ferreira
572: Another Boiling Frog: the impact of climate-related events on financial outcomes in Brazil Downloads
Juliano Assunção, Flávia Chein, Giovanni Frisari and Sérgio Koyama
571: Does Fintech Lending Lower Financing Costs? Evidence From An Emerging Market Downloads
Jose Ornelas and Alexandre Pecora
570: Causal Impulse Responses for Time Series Downloads
Leonardo Marinho
569: Creditor Rights and Bank Competition Downloads
Dimas Fazio and Thiago Silva
568: Efficiency-stability Trade-off in Financial Systems: a multi-objective optimization approach Downloads
Michel Alexandre, Krzystof Michalak, Thiago Silva and Francisco Rodrigues
567: Labor Supply and Demand Shocks in Brazil During Covid-19 Period Downloads
Nelson Silva and Sidney Caetano
566: Nestedness in the Brazilian Financial System Downloads
Michel Alexandre, Felipe Xavier, Thiago Silva and Francisco Rodrigues
565: Lending Relationships and Currency Hedging Downloads
Sergio Leão, Rafael Schiozer, Raquel Oliveira and Gustavo Araujo
564: Nowcasting Brazilian GDP with Electronic Payments Data Downloads
Raquel Gonçalves
563: The Long-Term Impact of High School Financial Education: evidence from Brazil Downloads
Miriam Bruhn, Gabriel Garber, Sergio Koyama and Bilal Zia
562: Persistência e Volatilidade do Gap de Inflação Downloads
Sidney Caetano, Nelson Silva and Guilherme Moura
561: Machine Learning Methods for Inflation Forecasting in Brazil: new contenders versus classical models Downloads
Gustavo Araujo and Wagner Gaglianone
560: Evaluation of the Protective Varnish on Brazilian Real Banknotes Downloads
Sergio Koyama, Tereza Oliveira, Marcia Silveira, Cristiana Monteiro, Carlos Quintella and Ricardo Vieira
559: Forecasting with VAR-teXt and DFM-teXt Models:exploring the predictive power of central bank communication Downloads
Leonardo Ferreira
558: COVID-19 and Local Market Power in Credit Markets Downloads
Thiago Silva, Sergio Souza and Solange Guerra
557: Does Default Pecking Order Impact Systemic Risk? Evidence from Brazilian data Downloads
Michel Alexandre, Thiago Silva, Krzysztof Michalak and Francisco Rodrigues
556: The Role of (non-)Topological Features as Drivers of Systemic Risk: a machine learning approach Downloads
Michel Alexandre, Thiago Silva, Colm Connaughton and Francisco Rodrigues
555: Seeing the Forest for the Trees: using hLDA models to evaluate communication in Banco Central do Brasil Downloads
Angelo Fasolo, Flavia Graminho and Saulo Bastos
554: A Few Things You Wanted to Know about the Economics of CBDCs, but were Afraid to Model: a survey of what we can learn from who has done Downloads
Marcelo Aragão
553: Optimal Informational Interest Rate Rule Downloads
Marta Areosa, Waldyr Areosa and Vinicius Carrasco
552: Impacts of the Monetary Policy Committee Decisions on the Foreign Exchange Rate in Brazil Downloads
José Vicente, Jaqueline Marins and Wagner Gaglianone
551: Is Corporate Credit Risk Propagated to Employees? Downloads
Filipe Correia, Gustavo Cortes and Thiago Silva
550: High Lending Interest Rates in Brazil: cost or concentration? Downloads
Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos
549: Blurred Crystal Ball: investigating the forecasting challenges after a great exogenous shock Downloads
Marcelo Aragão
548: Credit Allocation When Private Banks Distribute Government Loans Downloads
Jose Ornelas, Alvaro Pedraza, Claudia Ruiz-Ortega and Thiago Silva
547: Financial Access and Labor Market Outcomes: evidence from credit lotteries Downloads
Bernardus Van Doornik, Armando Gomes, David Schoenherr and Janis Skrastins
546: Human Capital and Startup Financing Downloads
Mauricio Jr and Bernardus Van Doornik
545: Transfer Learning for Business Cycle Identification Downloads
Marcelle Chauvet and Rafael Guimaraes
544: Machine Learning and Oil Price Point and Density Forecasting Downloads
Alexandre Costa, Pedro Ferreira, Wagner Gaglianone, Osmani Guillén, João Issler and Yihao Lin
543: A Non-Knotty Inflation Risk Premium Model Downloads
José Vicente
542: Deposit insurance and brokerage firms: impacts on the market discipline of the Brazilian banking industry Downloads
Marília Ohlson, Gerlando Lima and Tony Takeda
541: Bank Loan Forbearance: evidence from a million restructured loans Downloads
Frederico Mourad, Rafael Schiozer and Toni Ricardo dos Santos
540: Regulatory Banking Leverage: what do you know? Downloads
Douglas München and Herbert Kimura
539: Commodity Prices and Global Economic Activity: a derived-demand approach Downloads
Angelo Duarte, Wagner Gaglianone, Osmani Guillén and João Issler
538: Government Banks, Household Debt, and Economic Downturns: the case of Brazil Downloads
Gabriel Garber, Atif Mian, Jacopo Ponticelli and Amir Sufi
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