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Working Papers Series

From Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department
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563: The Long-Term Impact of High School Financial Education: evidence from Brazil Downloads
Miriam Bruhn, Gabriel Garber, Sergio Koyama and Bilal Zia
562: Persistência e Volatilidade do Gap de Inflação Downloads
Sidney Caetano, Nelson da Silva and Guilherme Moura
561: Machine Learning Methods for Inflation Forecasting in Brazil: new contenders versus classical models Downloads
Wagner Gaglianone and Gustavo Araujo
560: Evaluation of the Protective Varnish on Brazilian Real Banknotes Downloads
Sergio Koyama, Tereza Oliveira, Marcia Silveira, Cristiana Monteiro, Carlos Quintella and Ricardo Vieira
559: Forecasting with VAR-teXt and DFM-teXt Models:exploring the predictive power of central bank communication Downloads
Leonardo Ferreira
558: COVID-19 and Local Market Power in Credit Markets Downloads
Thiago Silva, Sergio Souza and Solange Guerra
557: Does Default Pecking Order Impact Systemic Risk? Evidence from Brazilian data Downloads
Michel Alexandre, Thiago Silva, Krzysztof Michalak and Francisco Rodrigues
556: The Role of (non-)Topological Features as Drivers of Systemic Risk: a machine learning approach Downloads
Michel Alexandre, Thiago Silva, Colm Connaughton and Francisco Rodrigues
555: Seeing the Forest for the Trees: using hLDA models to evaluate communication in Banco Central do Brasil Downloads
Angelo Fasolo, Flavia Graminho and Saulo Bastos
554: A Few Things You Wanted to Know about the Economics of CBDCs, but were Afraid to Model: a survey of what we can learn from who has done Downloads
Marcelo Aragão
553: Optimal Informational Interest Rate Rule Downloads
Marta Areosa, Waldyr Areosa and Vinicius Carrasco
552: Impacts of the Monetary Policy Committee Decisions on the Foreign Exchange Rate in Brazil Downloads
José Vicente, Jaqueline Marins and Wagner Gaglianone
551: Is Corporate Credit Risk Propagated to Employees? Downloads
Filipe Correia, Gustavo Cortes and Thiago Silva
550: High Lending Interest Rates in Brazil: cost or concentration? Downloads
Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos
549: Blurred Crystal Ball: investigating the forecasting challenges after a great exogenous shock Downloads
Marcelo Aragão
548: Credit Allocation When Private Banks Distribute Government Loans Downloads
Jose Ornelas, Alvaro Pedraza, Claudia Ruiz-Ortega and Thiago Silva
547: Financial Access and Labor Market Outcomes: evidence from credit lotteries Downloads
Bernardus Van Doornik, Armando Gomes, David Schoenherr and Janis Skrastins
546: Human Capital and Startup Financing Downloads
Mauricio Medeiros Jr and Bernardus Van Doornik
545: Transfer Learning for Business Cycle Identification Downloads
Marcelle Chauvet and Rafael Guimaraes
544: Machine Learning and Oil Price Point and Density Forecasting Downloads
Alexandre Costa, Pedro Ferreira, Wagner Gaglianone, Osmani Guillén, João Issler and Yihao Lin
543: A Non-Knotty Inflation Risk Premium Model Downloads
José Vicente
542: Deposit insurance and brokerage firms: impacts on the market discipline of the Brazilian banking industry Downloads
Marília Ohlson, Gerlando de Lima and Tony Takeda
541: Bank Loan Forbearance: evidence from a million restructured loans Downloads
Frederico Mourad, Rafael Schiozer and Toni dos Santos
540: Regulatory Banking Leverage: what do you know? Downloads
Douglas München and Herbert Kimura
539: Commodity Prices and Global Economic Activity: a derived-demand approach Downloads
Angelo Duarte, Wagner Gaglianone, Osmani Guillén and João Issler
538: Government Banks, Household Debt, and Economic Downturns: the case of Brazil Downloads
Gabriel Garber, Atif Mian, Jacopo Ponticelli and Amir Sufi
537: Countercyclical Liquidity Policy and Credit Cycles: evidence from macroprudential and monetary policy in Brazil Downloads
João Barroso, Rodrigo Gonzalez, Jose-Luis Peydro and Bernardus Van Doornik
536: Effects of Monetary Policy News on Financial Assets: evidence from Brazil on a bivariate VAR-GARCH model (2006-17) Downloads
Tarciso Silva, Osmani Guillén, George Morcerf and Andre Modenesi
535: What is the Importance of a Country's Banking Market for Financial Development? Downloads
Cláudio Moraes, José Antunes and Márcio Coutinho
534: Labor and finance: the effect of bank relationships Downloads
Patrick Behr, Lars Norden and Raquel Oliveira
533: Financial Intermediation, Human Capital Development and Economic Growth Downloads
Emerson Schmitz and Thiago Silva
532: Financial Development and Labor Markets: evidence from Brazil Downloads
Julia Fonseca and Bernardus Van Doornik
531: Economic Resilience: spillovers, courts, and vertical integration Downloads
Dimas Fazio, Thiago Silva and Janis Skrastins
530: Forward Guidance Matters: disentangling monetary policy shocks Downloads
Leonardo Ferreira
529: Short-Term Predictability of Stock Market Indexes following Large Drawdowns and Drawups Downloads
Vinicius Brandi
528: Medidas de Núcleo de Inflação para o Brasil baseadas no Método Wavelets? Downloads
Nelson Silva
527: Is the Equity Risk Premium Compressed in Brazil? Downloads
Alexandre Carvalho and Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos
526: RegGae: a toolkit for macroprudential policy with DSGEs Downloads
Eduardo Castro
525: Long-term stock returns in Brazil: volatile equity returns for U.S.-like investors Downloads
Eurilton Araújo, Ricardo Brito and Antonio Sanvicente
524: A General Characterization of the Capital Cost and the Natural Interest Rate: an application for Brazil Downloads
Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos
523: Unemployment Insurance as a Subsidy to Risky Firms Downloads
Bernardus Van Doornik, Dimas Fazio, David Schoenherr and Janis Skrastins
522: Housing Collateral Reform and Economic Reallocation Downloads
Dimas Fazio and Thiago Silva
521: Creditor's Protection and Bank Loans: market power and bankruptcy reform's effects Downloads
Leonardo Alencar, Rodrigo Andrade and Klenio Barbosa
520: Equality and Responsibility in Financial Crisis: an ethical approach to the regulation of bail-outs, moral hazards and accountability Downloads
Ramiro Peres
519: Effects of State-Owned Banks’ Programs to Stimulate Credit: evidence from Brazil Downloads
Emerson Schmitz
518: Monetary Policy Surprises and Employment: evidence from matched bank-firm loan data on the bank lending-channel Downloads
Rodrigo Gonzalez
517: Investors’ Behavior and Mutual Fund Portfolio Allocations in Brazil during the Global Financial Crisis Downloads
Fernando Linardi
516: A Data-Rich Measure of Underlying Inflation for Brazil Downloads
Vicente Machado, Raquel Nadal and Fernando Kawaoka
515: Option-Based Risk Aversion Indicators for Predicting Currency Crises in Emerging Markets Downloads
Jaqueline Marins
514: Monetary Policy and Reserve Requirements in a Small Open Economy Downloads
Carlos Haraguchi and Jose Angelo Divino
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