Evolução do Desemprego no Brasil no Período 2003-2013: análise através das probabilidades de transição

Fábio Silva and Leandro Pires

No 349, Working Papers Series from Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department

Abstract: The unemployment rate can be expressed by two components: the probability that an unemployed worker finds a job and the probability that an employed worker becomes unemployed. According to the methodology developed in Shimer (2012) and Elsby et al. (2009) this article calculates these factors for the aggregate of the main Brazilian metropolitan areas during the period 2003-2013 when unemployment fell substantially. We found that the reduction in the probability that an employed worker becomes unemployed was responsible for about 80% of the result. Employed workers experienced a generalized improvement, independent of job duration. Benefits to the unemployed workers were timid and segmented, excluding the long-term unemployed.

Date: 2014-02
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