Decompondo a Inflação Implícita

José Vicente and Flavia Graminho

No 359, Working Papers Series from Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department

Abstract: The break-even inflation rate (the difference between nominal and real rates) is the main indicator of future price level. However, inflation expectation is only one of its components. In this article we present a simple economic model in order to split the break-even inflation rate in the following fundamental factors: inflation expectation, convexity term, and liquidity and inflation risk premia. Using Brazilian data from January 2006 to September 2013 we evaluate each one of these terms. Inflation expectations are read directly from Focus, a survey conducted by Central Bank of Brazil. In our setup, the convexity term or Jensen's correction is equal to the variance of inflation rate. We report a very small convexity term which is in line with the literature on the subject. Its magnitude is around one basis point, less than the bid-ask spread of Brazilian fixed income bonds. Although there is a significant difference between the trading volume of real and nominal bonds, we find that this liquidity difference is not priced (liquidity premium is not significant). This result is apparently contradictory. However, it is due to the fact that, in Brazil, real bonds are usually held to maturity. Therefore investors do not demand a reward to exposure to liquidity uncertainty which in turn eliminates the relevance of this premium. Finally, we show that the inflation risk premium is nearly zero for short horizons. For long horizons this risk premium is time varying and close related with consumption and stock market volatility, consistent with economic theory.

Date: 2014-08
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Journal Article: Decompondo a Inflação Implícita (2015)
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