Sentimento e Macroeconomia: uma análise dos índices de confiança no Brasil

Flavia Graminho

No 408, Working Papers Series from Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department

Abstract: This article analyzes the antecedence and predictability of the consumer and industry confidence indices released by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE / FGV), using Granger causality tests and simple forecasting models of consumption and industrial production. The article then estimates the “feeling” as a state variable based on the part of the confidence indices not related to macroeconomic variables typically used in forecasting models. The “feeling” is not correlated with monetary and fiscal policies and increases the predictability of consumption and industrial production with lags of at least 6 months, providing evidence in favor of the existence of “animal spirits” in Brazil.

Date: 2015-11
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