Modelo Estrutural com Setor Externo: Endogenização do Prêmio de Risco e do Câmbio

Marcelo Muinhos, Sergio Alves and Gil Riella

No 42, Working Papers Series from Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department

Abstract: This paper presents a small-scale structural model to the Brazilian economy with an external block. The nominal exchange rate forecast is based on an uncovered interest rate, which is estimated in monthly terms since the switching of the exchange regime in 1999. As a risk premium measurement, the C-Bond spread is estimated as a function of the fiscal and external variables and domestic and external shocks. The new structural model, with estimated equation for the nominal exchange rate, risk premium, trade balance and other external equations for key external sector variables, is submitted to a shock in the risk premium and in the inflation. Simulations show that the nominal exchange rate is not affected by a shock in inflation.

Date: 2002-06
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