Decomposição de Inflação: revisão da metodologia e resultados para 2012 a 2014

Rafael Cusinato, Francisco Rodrigues Figueiredo, Vicente Machado, Euler Mello and Leonardo Pio Perez ()

No 440, Working Papers Series from Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department

Abstract: This paper presents an update of the inflation decomposition procedure based on the projection models used by Banco Central do Brasil. This procedure aims to generate estimates, for a given year, of the contribution of factors directly affecting inflation, such as inertia, exchange rate variation, expectations and supply shocks; and factors whose impact is indirect, operating through their effects on aggregate demand, such as real interest rates, fiscal stimulus and foreign output gap. Regarding inertia, the paper presents the distinct approaches applied to some components of administered prices. The decomposition results for 2012 to 2014 are presented, based on the updated methodology.

Date: 2016-06
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