Padrão Espectral do Quantum Externo Brasileiro

Nelson Silva

No 456, Working Papers Series from Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department

Abstract: This paper aims at analyzing Brazil`s exports and imports quantum cyclical behavior. Data observed are on a monthly basis from 1980 to 2015. The preliminary step consisted of analyzing structural breaks and calculating the unity root test. The spectral analysis, in its turn, allowed the identification of the cyclical components of the variables. The results of the preliminary step show that export series are stationary and import ones are integrated of order 1 and indicate structural breaks occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. The spectral study shows that exports are composed of long-term cycles at level, equivalent to periods of more than 13 years. The monthly rate of import quantum presented high frequency oscillations. In general, the spectral densities estimated are robust to the seasonal method and to the sample size used.

Date: 2017-05
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