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Brazilian Macroeconomic Dynamics Redux: Shocks, Frictions, and Unemployment in SAMBA Model

Angelo Fasolo, Eurilton Araújo, Marcos Jorge, Alexandre Kornelius and Leonardo Marinho

No 578, Working Papers Series from Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department

Abstract: This paper documents the recent changes in the structure and estimation procedures of the SAMBA model, providing a complete description of the decision problems that each economic agent faces, the first order conditions that solve those problems, and the new techniques employed to estimate the model. This updated version of the model incorporates new features, such as involuntary unemployment, imported goods in the consumption bundle and a new identified vector auto-regressive process for the rest of the world. Reflecting these changes, the set of observables was expanded to include, for instance, participation rates in the labor market and an exogenous measure of output gap. In face of increased complexity and the large number of observables, the model was estimated using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, allowing for a smaller sensitivity to the choice of priors.

Date: 2023-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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